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trend extrapolation

Nicholas J. Mathys


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Trend extrapolation is a forecasting technique that can be used to estimate both demand for and supply of human resources. This technique is based on what is called a time series – a set of observations measured at successive points in time (e.g., weekly, monthly, yearly). Usually the most significant underlying characteristic of any data is their trend, mathematically referred to as the slope or average rate of change over a time period. In projecting staffing requirements for some time in the future, it may be useful to assume that the relationships that have occurred in the past will continue to hold. Based on this, one can take past data, such as number of employees used at different levels of activity (or time periods) and project (or extrapolate) what would likely occur in the future. This technique lends itself to graphical analyses and simplifies the mathematics involved. An example of this approach is in Burack and Mathys (1996) . ( 1996 ). Human Resource Planning: A Pragmatic Approach to Manpower Staffing and Development . Lake Forest, IL : Brace‐Park . ... log in or subscribe to read full text

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