Full Text

probability


Subject Philosophy

DOI: 10.1111/b.9781405106795.2004.x


Extract

L ogic, epistemology The different degrees of truth that a rational belief has when such a belief is more or less inconclusive. Probability can apply the occurrence of events , the existence of states , or the truth of propositions. There are various conceptions of probability corresponding to different theories of probability. Relative frequency theory, associated with J. Venn and R. von Mises , identifies probability with the frequency of occurrence of events of a given kind. Such an understanding of probability is addressed mainly to physical probability, that is, probability as an objective factor in the world and as the subject-matter of statistics. Physical probability is indefinite in that it attaches to states of affairs or attributes ratherthan to propositions . Propensity theory argues that physical probability can pertain to specific individuals as propensities. Subjectivism or personalism , associated with de Finetti and Ramsey , takes probability as the degree of belief in an event. On this understanding probability is epistemic and is concerned with knowledge and opinion rather than with the physical structure of the world. This kind of probability is definite in the sense that it attaches to propositions rather than to attributes. Confirmation theory and range theory hold that probability is a connection between our judgment and ... log in or subscribe to read full text

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